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AI Cold War: A Wargame Simulation

August 1 → October 1, 2026. Seven actors. Nine rounds. One AI bubble.

FACTS in normal text. SPECULATION in italics. This simulation uses real model status and market data as of Aug 1, 2026, then projects forward through wargame reasoning. All scenarios are hypothetical.

The Board — Starting State

August 1, 2026. Seven actors. Each holds a different strategic position.

Market State — Aug 1, 2026

NVDA$196.51 (down 5% Jul 27, CDS record high)
Hyperscaler capex 2026$690–725B (45–57% of revenue)
VC Q1 2026$297B, AI = 81%
OpenAI debt commitment$1.4T / 8yr
NBER survey90% of firms: no AI productivity impact
GeopoliticalTrump–Xi May 2026 summit covered H200 controls. DeepSeek making own chips. Huawei Ascend = 50% China DC chip market.

The Simulation — Nine Rounds

Each phase expands on click. Actor moves, reasoning, market impact, and tension shifts.

The New Equilibrium — Oct 1, 2026

Where the simulation lands. A cold détente, not a victory for either side.

    Final Tension Level

    Moderate — cold détente, not cold war.

    Sources

    All citations referenced in the simulation, grouped by topic.